Local Structural Issues
7 items
The Fragility of 'One Million Furusato Residents': Can Numerical Targets Qualify as EBPM?
The "Regional Revitalization 2.0 Basic Concept," approved by the Cabinet in June 2025, set a numerical target of reaching one million "related population" members (jinkō) through the Furusato Resident Registration system and 100 million cumulative engagements over ten years. Yet the basis for the one-million figure is nowhere stated in the main text, summary, or policy collection of the basic concept. Nor has any comprehensive evaluation of the outcomes of Regional Revitalization 1.0 (2014–2024) been conducted. This article critiques the validity of the numerical target itself through the lens of EBPM (evidence-based policymaking), and analyzes — structurally — the risk that "related population inflation" and "dependence on success-story collections" are being carried over from 1.0 to 2.0.
Where Did 1.3 Trillion Yen in Hometown Tax Go? — The Redistribution That Never Reaches 'the Regions'
Japan's Hometown Tax (furusato nozei) hit a record 1.27 trillion yen in FY2024, yet 46.4% goes to expenses—portal site fees alone account for 165.6 billion yen. With Yokohama losing 31.4 billion yen and Tokyo's 23 wards losing approximately 93 billion yen in tax revenue, we examine the zero-sum structure behind the "support your hometown" rhetoric.
Four Furusato Tax Reforms: Who Is the Redistribution Engine Really For?
From the October 2025 points ban to the high-earner deduction cap taking effect in 2027, Japan's furusato (hometown) tax donation system is undergoing four reforms over three years. With an expense ratio of 46.4%, intermediary portal fees totaling ¥165.6 billion, and ¥216.1 billion in residence-tax outflows from Tokyo alone, these reforms aim to restore credibility. But do they actually fix the redistribution mechanism?
Who Gets the ¥9.5 Trillion? — Questioning Japan's 'Tourism Nation' Without Residents
Japan's inbound tourist spending reached ¥9.5 trillion in 2025, yet almost none of this flows back to local residents. We analyze OTA commission leakage, urban concentration, and the low-wage accommodation sector, comparing Japan's approach with Barcelona and Amsterdam's resident-return models to outline the circulatory design Japan still lacks.
Regional Revitalization 2.0 and the '10 Million Related Population' Target: Are Means and Ends Reversed?
Japan's "Regional Revitalization 2.0 Basic Plan," approved by Cabinet in June 2025, aims to create 10 million "related population" through a Furusato Resident Registration system over 10 years. Has the structural logic of 1.0's failures truly been addressed? This article examines the policy through definitional ambiguity, target-setting risks, and international comparison.
The Disappearing Workforce of Local Government — What Halved Exam Ratios and Surging Youth Resignations Reveal
Competition ratios for Japan's local civil service exams halved from 7.9× to 4.1× in a decade, while resignations among employees under 30 surged 2.7-fold. Teacher hiring exams hit a record low of 2.9×. This structural crisis goes deeper than "young people losing interest in public service" — the underlying causes are demographic decline, Japan's lowest-in-OECD public sector employment ratio, and an unsustainable workload structure.
The Core of Japan's Declining Birthrate Is Not Childcare Support: Interrogating the Generational Distribution of 114 Trillion Yen in Social Security
Japan's birth count in 2025 reached 706,000, arriving 17 years ahead of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's projection. Yet the root of the problem does not lie in insufficient childcare support. The structural fixation of the declining birthrate stems from an 11-to-1 generational distribution of social security spending: 113.6 trillion yen allocated to the elderly versus 10 trillion yen for children and child-rearing. This article analyzes the "lost opportunity" of the baby-boom junior generation and the democratic circuit that silver democracy has locked shut against any rebalancing.