Structural Problems in Agriculture and Food Security——Reading the Meaning of 38% Self-Sufficiency
Analyzing the structural background of Japan's 38% food self-sufficiency rate. Tracing the chain from aging farmers to abandoned farmland to food security.
TL;DR
- Japan's core agricultural workforce has shrunk to 1.02 million (average age 69.2), reaching 'unsustainable' territory
- The 38% food self-sufficiency rate is not a natural decline but the result of over 50 years of agricultural policy choices centered on rice price maintenance
- The structural chain of aging farmers, abandoned farmland, declining production, and import dependency leaves little time for course correction
What is Happening
Japan's 38% food self-sufficiency reflects deeper structural collapse in domestic agricultural production capacity.
38% on a calorie basis. This figure alone does not reveal the contours of the crisis facing Japanese agriculture.
When low self-sufficiency rates are discussed, import dependency and trade structures are often placed at the center of debate. But the roots of the problem run deeper. The fact is that the domestic agricultural production base itself is quietly but steadily collapsing.
According to the Survey on Agricultural Structure and Dynamics published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) in 2025, the number of core agricultural workers is 1.02 million. This represents a 25.1% decrease from 1.36 million five years ago——the largest reduction on record. Moreover, the average age of these 1.02 million workers is 69.2 years, with those aged 65 and over comprising 71.7% of the total. To put it succinctly: simultaneous aging and contraction. Japan's agricultural workforce structure has already reached "unsustainable" territory.
Fewer farmers → expanding abandoned land → declining domestic output → deeper import dependence. This four-stage chain structurally locks self-sufficiency at 38%.
New entrants to farming number about 43,000 annually. But the pace of farm abandonment is several times higher, resulting in a continuous net decline in agricultural workers. Abandoned farmland has expanded to over 250,000 hectares, and agricultural land area has contracted by more than 30% over the past 60 years. Restoring once-degraded farmland to a productive state requires enormous cost and time. Lost farmland can become effectively irreversible losses.
Background and Context
Historical and contextual factors contributing to Japan's current agricultural crisis and workforce decline.
Agricultural Policy Turning Point——The Merits and Demerits of Rice Reduction Policies
Postwar Japanese agricultural policy has been built around rice as its foundation. The rice reduction policy (production adjustment) introduced in 1970 was designed to curb rice overproduction, but resulted in idling of paddy fields while failing to adequately promote transition to alternative crops. Although administrative allocation of rice reduction was abolished in 2018, production adjustment practices continue in effect, with policy changes not translating into behavioral changes at the field level.
The core problem lies in the entrenchment of a policy framework that positioned agriculture as a "declining industry requiring protection." Direct payments to farmers, price supports, and tariff protection——while these measures temporarily supported individual farmers, they simultaneously delayed structural reforms. Farm scale expansion and corporatization lagged, leaving agricultural productivity low among developed nations.
What Agricultural Aging Means
The aging of agricultural workers is not simply a matter of "young people not wanting to farm." Many elderly farmers operate small-scale family businesses with no connection to farm corporatization or scaling up. When these farmers leave agriculture, farmland faces a binary choice: becoming abandoned due to lack of successors, or being consolidated with regional leaders.
The Farmland Bank (Agricultural Land Intermediate Management Organization), established in 2014, has promoted farmland consolidation. The farmland consolidation rate to core farmers reached approximately 60% as of 2023. However, in disadvantaged areas——terraced rice fields and slopes in hilly and mountainous regions——there are simply no willing recipients. Efficient consolidation proceeds on flat farmland while disadvantaged areas face abandonment without successors. Agricultural land "polarization" is expanding.
Climate Change and Domestic Production Risks
Climate change compounds agricultural structural problems. MAFF estimates that without adaptation measures, rice yields could decrease by up to 30% by 2050. Heat damage causing immature white grains is already evident primarily in Niigata and Hokuriku regions, with some areas experiencing significant drops in first-grade rice ratios in 2023.
For fruit trees, production areas are moving northward, with apple growing zones shifting from traditional Aomori and Nagano prefectures to Hokkaido. In livestock, heat stress is causing reduced milk production and breeding performance problems. Weakening domestic production bases further accelerates import dependency.
Reading the Structure
Systematic analysis of interconnected structural problems undermining Japan's agricultural sustainability.
This problem should not be reduced to numerical target discussions of "how to raise self-sufficiency rates."
The Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas Basic Act, revised in 2024, drew attention as the first major revision in 25 years. The 2030 target for calorie-based self-sufficiency is 45%. But this figure was carried over from the previous basic plan and has never been achieved in over 20 years. Repeating target values only deepens doubts about policy effectiveness.
Let me reorganize the chain of structural problems. Aging and declining workforce creates abandoned farmland, shrinking agricultural land reduces domestic production capacity, and imports fill the gap. This cycle has continued for over 40 years, resulting in the 38% figure.
Notable is that this structure represents "policy outcomes" rather than "market failure." Supply-demand management agricultural policies typified by rice price maintenance and production reduction protected farmers while undermining agricultural competitiveness and next-generation participation incentives. Moves to reposition agriculture in national security contexts were partially reflected in the basic law revision, but specific measures——investment in core farmers, smart agriculture promotion support, strategic decisions on maintaining or consolidating disadvantaged areas——are still in early stages.
Perspectives viewing food security from global supply chain vulnerabilities and from domestic agricultural structures are two sides of the same coin. When imports are disrupted, how much food can be produced domestically? This "emergency production capacity" is determined by maintaining and investing in agricultural infrastructure during peacetime.
The 38% figure represents both the result of half a century of policy choices and something that can be changed through future choices. However, the reality that the average age of core farmers is 69.2 years underscores the shortness of remaining time.
Related Columns
- The Structure of 38% Food Self-Sufficiency——"Food Security" in the Globalization Era
- The Intersection of Climate Change and Social Inequality
- Reading the Structure of Local Government "Extinction"
References
農業構造動態調査結果の概要（令和7年） — 農林水産省. 農林水産省
令和6年度食料自給率・食料自給力指標について — 農林水産省. 農林水産省
食料・農業・農村基本法の一部を改正する法律（令和6年法律第52号） — 農林水産省. 農林水産省
Japan's Farming Population Rapidly Aging and Decreasing — Nippon.com. Nippon.com
