Tokunoshima TFR 2.25, Higashiyama 0.76 — Mapping Birth Rates Across 1,741 Municipalities
When Japan's total fertility rate is broken down to the municipal level (2018–2022 average), a nearly three-fold gap emerges between the highest (Tokunoshima 2.25) and lowest (Higashiyama Ward 0.76). This article analyzes the social structures behind the "high west, low east" geographic pattern.
TL;DR
- Municipal TFRs span from Tokunoshima-cho 2.25 to Higashiyama Ward 0.76, a roughly three-fold gap
- The top 17 municipalities are all in Kagoshima (Amami/Satsunan Islands) or Okinawa, revealing a stark "high west, low east" pattern
- Regional birth-rate disparities are driven not simply by urban vs. rural status, but by the structural retention or exodus of young women
What is Happening
At the municipal level, TFRs show a more than three-fold gap, with top performers concentrated in Southwest Islands and Okinawa, while lowest values cluster in urban wards.
Japan's national total fertility rate averaged approximately 1.26 over the five-year period 2018–2022, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Yet when disaggregated to the municipal level, this "average" conceals a disparity of nearly three-fold.
The highest value belongs to Tokunoshima-cho in Kagoshima Prefecture at 2.25, while the lowest is Higashiyama Ward in Kyoto at 0.76. Within the same country, a municipality exceeding the replacement level (TFR = 2.07) and one with a globally rare figure of 0.76 coexist.
All five top municipalities are either Kagoshima island towns or Okinawa municipalities, and the top 17 are monopolized by Kagoshima (Amami/Satsunan Islands) and Okinawa. Conversely, the bottom cluster consists of historic urban wards — Higashiyama (0.76), Kamigyo (0.80), Shimogyo (0.82) in Kyoto, and Naniwa Ward in Osaka (0.80).
In 2022, Tokyo's TFR fell below 1.0 for the first time, reaching 0.99 — a 0.61-point gap from Okinawa's 1.60 in the same year.
Background and Context
The west-high/east-low structure is shaped by the intersection of young female out-migration patterns and cultural differences.
The West-High, East-Low Geographic Structure
Mapping municipal TFR data reveals a clear "high west, low east" pattern. Kyushu, Okinawa, and the Southwest Islands form a high-value cluster, while Hokkaido, Tohoku, and the Kanto region (especially urban areas) sit at the low end.
This structure is not coincidental. Several sociocultural factors combine to produce Okinawa and the Southwest Islands' elevated birth rates.
The proportion of married women aged 20–29 exceeds the national average, and earlier marriage boosts the marital fertility rate. The rate of children born outside marriage is also approximately 4% in Okinawa, double the national average of about 2%, reflecting more flexible norms around family formation (cf. Ryukyu Shimpo).
Additionally, frequent family-gathering occasions such as Shīmī (Qingming Festival) and Ukui (Obon homecoming), a culture of three-generation co-residence, and strong community child-rearing support structures distribute the costs of parenting socially.
The "Rural Yet Low" Problem in Tohoku and Hokkaido
Low TFR is not confined to cities. In rural parts of Tohoku and Hokkaido, a paradox emerges: regions that appear rural still record low birth rates.
The core cause is young female out-migration. A structural pattern has taken hold in which young women leave for cities upon entering high school or university and do not return. TFR is determined not only by how many children resident women bear, but also by how many women aged 15–49 reside in the area in the first place. In regions that have lost young women, even if the remaining women have higher per-person fertility, the small denominator prevents an overall TFR rebound.
Why Urban Wards Form the Lowest Tier
Multiple factors combine to place historic urban wards — Higashiyama (0.76), Naniwa (0.80), Kamigyo (0.80) — at the bottom.
First, high non-marriage rates: data from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research show that non-marriage rates among young women in major metropolitan areas far exceed the national average. Second, high housing and education costs: in central wards of Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto, the cost of raising children tends to be disproportionately large relative to income. Third, lifestyle diversification: in cities with high concentrations of highly educated women, the career-versus-childbearing trade-off is sharper, leading to later or foregone childbearing.
Reading the Structure
A "black hole" dynamic, in which cities attract young people while suppressing childbirth, accelerates the national decline.
The most important structural insight from municipal-level data is the existence of a mechanism whereby cities attract young people while simultaneously suppressing childbirth.
The Population Strategy Council's 2024 report identified 25 municipalities as "black hole" types — those that attract large numbers of young women but record low internal birth rates. Twenty-one of these 25 are concentrated in the Kanto region, and many are Tokyo special wards. They draw population in, yet maintain conditions in which that population rarely gives birth.
The persistence of this structure accelerates national-level depopulation. As young women leave rural areas and urban destinations suppress childbirth, births fall in both origin and destination regions. Urban concentration and declining fertility operate as an inseparable structural loop.
Municipal TFR disparities are not simply statistical diversity across regions. They reflect a social structure in which young people choose where to live and whether to have children — and those choices are shaped by the regional distribution of employment, housing, child-care support, and cultural norms. When designing policies to reverse the decline, what is needed is not uniform national measures but region-specific structural diagnosis.
Related Columns
- Data Analysis of the 744 Municipalities at Risk of Disappearance
- Generational Pension Disparities Visualized by Birth Year
Related Guides
References
Vital Statistics by Health Center and Municipality 2018–2022 — Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. MHLW
2022 Vital Statistics (Final): Overview — Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. MHLW
Municipal TFR Rankings 2018–2022: Highest Is Tokunoshima-cho (2.25) — GemMed Editorial Team. GemMed
Why Is Okinawa Prefecture's TFR Higher Than the Japanese Mainland? — Ishii Makoto et al.. Geographical Review of Japan, Vol. 93, No. 2
Japan's High West, Low East Birth Rate Pattern — nippon.com Editorial Team. nippon.com
